LAX Leader

USC experts have shared valuable insights on the art and science of public opinion polling, shedding light on what distinguishes a strong poll from a weak one.

According to Jane Junn, a professor at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, key indicators of a strong poll during non-election periods include selecting unbiased samples, asking neutral questions, and disclosing methodologies. Junn emphasized the importance of considering the turnout model in calling election races, highlighting the significance of analyzing turnout among specific groups in prior elections.

On the other hand, Christian Grose, a professor at USC Dornsife, warned about red flags in polling, such as fake polls that lack representativeness. Grose also cautioned against relying solely on internal campaign polls, which may not always be shared transparently with the public.

Arie Kapteyn, professor of economics at USC Dornsife, stressed the significance of transparency in polling and research. Kapteyn emphasized that sharing methods with others allows for verification of procedures and helps in detecting errors, noting that invoking a "secret sauce" as a proprietary method can lead to abuse.

In addition to these experts, USC is home to other notable figures in the field of polling, such as Marc Baldassare, Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Jill Darling, and Bob Shrum, each contributing their expertise in public opinion, survey methodology, and election prediction.

As polling data continues to influence news coverage and public perception, the guidance provided by these USC experts serves as a valuable resource for navigating the complexities of polling and understanding the factors that contribute to a poll's credibility.