LAX Leader

Republican incumbents in four key U.S. House races are in a tight bid for reelection, according to a series of polls from USC, CSULB, and Cal Poly Pomona. Experts will discuss the results in a webinar moderated by KQED’s Marisa Lagos on Sept. 25.

With two months to go before Election Day, four of California’s key races for the U.S. House of Representatives hang in the balance, including U.S. Rep. Katie Porter’s seat, according to new poll results by USC, California State University Long Beach, and Cal Poly Pomona.

U.S. Rep. Scott Baugh leads Democratic challenger Dave Min by 3.7 points in the race — within the poll’s margin of error of 4.3 percentage points — to fill Porter’s seat for the 47th Congressional District spanning Orange County.

But the poll also shows that a handful of California Republican incumbents in the mostly blue state are in a fight to retain their congressional seats, including:

Rep. Ken Calvert is in a dead heat with Democrat Will Rollins for the 41st Congressional District that includes Riverside County.

Rep. Michelle Steel trails challenger Democrat Derek Tran by 1.5 percentage points for the 45th Congressional District seat.

Rep. Mike Garcia is nearly neck-and-neck with Democrat George Whitesides for Congressional District 27 spanning the Antelope Valley in Los Angeles County.

“A strong turnout for Democrats at the top of the ticket could knock out several of the Republican incumbents,” says Christian Grose, professor of political science and international relations and public policy at USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences and USC Price School of Public Policy. “California Democratic House candidates have the wind at their back, but the real question is whether Democratic voter excitement will knock up against a red wall of California Republican incumbents.”

Those are just some results from California Elections and Policy Polls sponsored by Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy at Cal State Long Beach with USC collaboration.

The series included eight polls surveying more than 3,700 likely voters conducted from Sept. 14-21 across eight districts: San Francisco, Los Angeles, Central Valley, San Joaquin Valley, Orange County and Riverside County.

RSVP today for “A House Up for Grabs” on Wednesday, Sept. 25 at noon Pacific Time to hear experts discuss these findings.

CA-41: Calvert and Rollins tied

In CA-41's repeat contest from 2022 where Rollins lost by fewer than five percentage points to Calvert who has held this seat over three decades they remain virtually tied again representing Palm Springs and L.A.'s commuter towns district-wide showing underlying partisanship slightly more Republican helping incumbent Ken Calvert however polling data indicates underperformance relative other statewide Republicans like Senate candidate Steve Garvey says Grose

CA-47: DUI impact?

Covering coastal Orange County Baugh leads Min replacing Rep Katie Porter identified top target both Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee National Republican Congressional Committee polling finds Baugh leading three points (46% -43%) Min criticized since his drunken driving conviction described survey respondents terms such as “DUI,” “drunk” “drunk driving” conversely likely voters used terms like “conservative” describing Baugh

“California's CA-47 incredibly competitive one few bright spots poll Republican House candidates while within margin error lead over three points shows criticisms DUI having impact however digging into crosstabs Democratic voters much more enthusiastic election than Republicans” says Grose

CA-45: GOP incumbent Steel uphill re-election

Tran Steel virtually tie survey district Schiff leads Garvey Senate Harris leads Trump presidency Steel trailing Tran only demonstrating endurance leaning district yet suggests wave push despite stronger performance atop ticket remarks Grose

Other highlights:

CA12 CA16 Bay Area Democrats Simon Liccardo lead open seats Simon ahead Jennifer Tran election replacing retiring Barbara Lee though undecided half surveyed meanwhile former Mayor Liccardo leading Low broader base support drawing primarily Democrats says Grose

CA17 Whitesides slim advantage undecided voters led Garcia among likely percent favor pushed choosing candidate exceeding undecideds backing Garcia

CA13 CA22 Central Valley San Joaquin turnout key Democrats Valadao Duarte under threat Salas ahead Valadao margin quarter didn't vote previously favor challenger meanwhile Duarte trailing Gray narrowly favoring him new electorate supporting more

More about California Elections Policy Polls series eight conducted September each own sample size margins error see below sponsored collaboration researchers addition conducted Associate Professor Matthew Mendez Garcia Assistant Professor Matt Lesenyie Assistant Professor Jarred Cuellar Jose Alcocer doctoral student Raquel Centeno doctoral students ensuring representativeness screening extremely somewhat adjusting oversamples representative fielded multiple languages

Poll / Sample Size (N) / Margin Error (MoE)

CA12/East Bay N=510 MoE +/-4.3%

CA13/San Joaquin N=311 MoE +/-5 .6%

CA16/San Jose N=544 MoE +/-4 .2%

CA22/Central N=263 MoE +/-6 .1%

CA27/LA N=522 MoE +/-4 .3%

CA41/Riverside N=539 MoE +/-4 .2%

CA45/Orange N=498 MoE +/-4 .4%

CA47/Orange N=525 MoE +/-4 .3%